If you run a small business, the question behind most big decisions is simple: is my industry headed up or down? Hiring, a second location, new equipment and how much cash to keep on hand all depend on the answer.
We pulled together the latest federal numbers, plus real-time visit and spending trends, to give you a plain read on the next two years. Here is what the data says, what it doesn't, and how to use it.
First, the yardstick: prices rose 3.4%
Before you judge whether sales are growing, account for inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Grocery prices rose 2.2% and restaurant menu prices rose 3.4%. Gasoline jumped 27.4%.
So if your sales grew 2% over the past year, you sold less than you did a year ago. You just charged more for it. That is the lens for everything below.
Where growth is strongest
Health care practices and home health
This is the clearest long-term winner. The BLS projects private health care and social assistance will add about 2.2 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, which is 37% of all new jobs in the country (BLS Employment Projections). An aging population and more people managing chronic conditions are driving it.
Four of the ten fastest-growing industries by output are in health care: home health care, offices of other health practitioners (think physical therapists and chiropractors), outpatient care centers and physicians' offices (BLS output projections).
What it means: demand is not the constraint for most practices. Staff, space and equipment usually are. Plan your hiring pipeline and equipment upgrades early.
Professional and technical services
Consulting, design, accounting, engineering and similar firms are projected to add about 926,700 jobs by 2035, growth of 8.6%. BLS points to demand for AI-based systems, research and the consulting that goes with them.
One caution: visits to professional-service offices are down noticeably from a year ago, so the growth is in the work, not the walk-ins. Firms that sell expertise remotely are best placed.
Specialty retail and online sellers
Most store types grew faster than prices over the past year, but a few stood out. Sales at sporting goods and hobby stores rose 10.7%, online sellers 9.9% and miscellaneous specialty stores 14.0% between August 2025 and August 2026 (Census Bureau). That is well ahead of 3.4% inflation.
What it means: shoppers are still spending on things they care about and on convenience. A clear niche and a working online store matter more than ever.
Electrical work tied to power and data centers
Utilities are the fastest-growing sector in the federal projections, with jobs up 9.8% by 2035, driven by electricity demand from data centers and AI. Utilities themselves are mostly large companies. Our read is that the electricians, line contractors and specialty trades that build and maintain that capacity stand to benefit.
Holding up: auto repair
Real-time visit data shows auto repair losing fewer customers than other consumer categories over the past year, with average tickets rising. People keeping cars longer tends to help repair shops. Car dealers and parts stores, by contrast, grew just 2.1% in sales, behind inflation.
The mixed middle: restaurants
Restaurant and bar sales rose 5.8% over the year while menu prices rose 3.4%, so real growth was roughly 2%. But visit counts at casual-dining restaurants are down from a year ago, so fewer guests are spending more per visit. Restaurants that win on value, speed or a loyal regular crowd are likely to keep doing fine. Those relying on occasional guests should watch traffic closely.
Where these numbers come from
Job projections, retail sales and inflation come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, linked where we cite them. The visit and spending trends are our own reading of data from Carbon Arc, described in our words rather than reproduced. Projections are estimates, not promises, and every local market is different.
How to use this in your own business
- Measure your real growth. Take your sales change over the last twelve months and subtract the price change for your industry. That is your true direction.
- Compare yourself to your category. If your category is growing and you are not, the gap is yours to close. If your category is shrinking and you are holding steady, you are outperforming.
- Plan the next two years with a range. Build a base case, a slower case and a faster case for sales, and check that your cash holds up in the slower one.
- Recheck every quarter. We will update this outlook each quarter as new federal data comes out.
If growth means you need equipment, inventory or a cushion while you hire, a Full Port Financial advisor can walk you through funding options at no cost to you.
The short version
- Prices rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026, so sales growth below that is a real decline.
- Health care practices and home health have the strongest long-term outlook, with 37% of projected new US jobs.
- Professional services, specialty and online retail, and electrical trades serving power demand also look strong.
- Auto repair is holding up; restaurants are growing slightly in real terms but serving fewer guests.
- Measure your own real growth against your category, and plan with a slow-case scenario.